Sideways Sammy

Friday night’s win over Birmingham City felt a significant step in the right direction for Coventry City. Playing a fast-paced, attack-minded style of football, the Sky Blues demonstrated that they can put away teams they are expected to beat with a relative degree of ease. With this home game against Southampton preceding two tricky away trips to Leeds United and Sunderland, the challenge now is take results off some of the best teams in the division.

Managed by Russell Martin, a manager against whom Mark Robins appears to have a mental block against, Coventry City are going to have to attempt something very different in this game compared to Friday night’s one against a team that are likely to hoard possession for the majority of the 90 minutes. If the Sky Blues can get a positive result here, it would cement some of the recent improvements that have been seen but the concern is that Southampton may well force the home side to have to play in a completely different manner to how they have been lately, which negates the momentum that has been built.

Expected Line-Up

It should be a simple case of picking the exact same team as the one that impressed so much against Birmingham City. However, the nature of the opposition and the congested fixture list may well tempt Mark Robins into one or two changes, in addition to Matt Godden being available for selection here after missing the last game due to the birth of his second child.

Despite scoring twice on Friday night, Callum O’Hare’s name is probably one of the key ones to keep an eye on ahead of the starting line-up being announced. It is important to remember that O’Hare has only been fit for around a month after two significant injuries and keeping him that way has to be the priority over any short-term results. Whether it’s for this game or, more likely, the next one, don’t be surprised to see O’Hare handed a rest.

The midfield selection could well be interesting in other ways, even if Callum O’Hare is backed to start here. Friday night was only the second time this season that Josh Eccles missed out on a starting line-up in the league and the first time he didn’t make an appearance, however, the extra physicality and tactical discipline he provides could well be valuable here in a game where Coventry City will have to maintain a high level of concentration in without the ball.

The other most likely change for this game could well be Matt Godden taking Ellis Simms’ place in the starting line-up now that he is available for selection again. As much as Coventry City fans would like to see Simms backed with a run in the side to build his confidence and sharpness up, Mark Robins has constantly looked for ways to bring Godden into the fold and it wouldn’t be a surprise if he did so here. However, Simms’ pace could be useful on the counter against a Southampton team likely to dominate possession, and if he doesn’t start here, it may be a better idea to move Haji Wright into the middle – with O’Hare pushed out wide – to provide a direct threat on the break.

Last Time We Met

An FA Cup tie against a mid-table Premier League Southampton playing close to a second-string side looked the perfect opportunity for Coventry City to pull off an upset just under two years ago, which they were closing to doing. The Sky Blues defended well and were a danger on the counter, with Viktor Gyokeres handing the away side a thoroughly deserved half-time lead after slotting home following a lovely interchange with Ben Sheaf that sent him clean through in the penalty area.

As the game wore on, however, Coventry City tired and Southampton’s higher-tier quality began to tell. Just dropping off a few metres into their defensive shape provided enough room for Stuart Armstrong to score an absurd bending effort to level the scores. The Sky Blues had chances to win the game on the break later on, but as soon as it reached extra-time, they looked cooked. Kyle Walker-Peters ensured that the game wouldn’t go to penalties, teasing the away defence before shooting past Simon Moore to make it 2-1 with little time for a response.

The Opposition

The Manager – Russell Martin

Famed for a very possession-heavy style of football, Russell Martin is yet to back that approach up with tangible on-pitch achievements, opening the debate on him up as to whether he is simply all style and no substance. After moving on from a mid-table Swansea City side where he achieved slightly better than mid-table results, at Southampton, Martin has his best opportunity to win a promotion in his early stages as a manager. However, the combination of early teething issues and the remarkable form of both Leicester City and Ipswich Town already leaves the Saints requiring near-perfection between now and the end of the season for Martin to achieve promotion in his first year at the club, but there are signs that they are clicking into gear.

In the early months of the season, Russell Martin struggled to make sense of a pretty imbalanced squad with key players linked with big moves, and leaving, right up until the end of the transfer window. The style has been clear to see, with Southampton consistently dominating possession, but finding the right combinations of attacking players has led to an inconsistent output of goals, while there have been defensive soft-spots for opponents to target which Martin has been gradually closing down. While it feels like Southampton may currently be short of the sum of their constituent parts, there are signs of progress under Russell Martin for fans to hold onto.

Who To Look Out For?

Southampton have a lot of high end options across the board and with such a dominant, possession-based style, the form of their attacking players is what often decides their games. The Saints have settled into a front three of Che Adams and Adam Armstrong attacking from wide positions, with Carlos Alcaraz adopting a false nine role to get them into the game. Adams and Armstrong are both well-known, reliable goalscorers at Championship level, with Adams not only fast but incredibly physically strong, while Armstrong can be searingly fast over the shoulder of opposing defenders and with the capacity for some absurd finishes – which can be valuable given how deep opponents defend against Southampton, denying Armstrong space in behind.

That initial approach of attacking with two centre-forwards moving in from wide areas, with the man in the middle looking to drop in and join the midfield, can make Southampton narrow in the final third, but that can be changed by outright wingers, Ryan Fraser and Samuel Edozie, coming off the bench to draw out opposing defences and commit defenders into one-against-one situations.

In midfield, Flynn Downes and Shea Charles play an important role in breaking up play from deep and acting as the first pass out of defence. Downes, who was a key lieutenant of Martin’s at Swansea City, is probably the most important cog in the team’s system with his ability to both control the tempo and break up opposition attacks. That provides the platform for players like Stuart Armstrong and Joe Aribo to push forward and get into dangerous areas around the opposing penalty area, with Will Smallbone, just back from injury ahead of this game, another potential destructive option in the middle of the park.

In Kyle Walker-Peters at right-back, Southampton have a player who could arguably slot into just about any top six Premier League team. The former Tottenham Hotspur youngster has looked miles ahead of anyone he’s faced in the Championship this season with his dribbling and all-round technical ability. Having him to stretch opponents on the right side of the pitch allows Southampton to get their attackers into advanced areas, with Ryan Manning on the left tucking into midfield to aid the team’s dominance of possession.

Where The Game Will Be Won Or Lost

Mark Robins has consistently struggled to find a formula that can combat Russell Martin’s teams and their level of dominance of possession. Last year’s 3-3 draw at home to Swansea City highlighted that while Robins can figure out a counter-attacking formula, finding the balance in defence between putting pressure on the ball and avoiding leaving gaps to be passed through is a puzzle he is yet to solve. The worry here is that against a Southampton side with individuals who can take the game away from Coventry City on their own, this could be a particularly one-sided contest.

This is a going to be a big test of the Sky Blues’ newfound defensive understanding. Milan van Ewijk’s pace to cover in behind could be useful in allowing the team to push up more than they otherwise would, but the key is going to be in how the forwards and midfield support the defensive effort by putting pressure on the ball in the right areas. It could be effective at times in this game for the home side to show Southampton that they are willing to press in the opposing half to try and break up their rhythm, but if they get it wrong, that will allow Che Adams and Adam Armstrong to run in behind the full-backs and through on goal.

Where Southampton are vulnerable is in defence, where they have consistently been vulnerable on the counter-attack. While Jan Bednarek and Taylor Harwood-Bellis aren’t exactly slow, with Kyle Walker-Peters pushing far up on the right side and Ryan Manning staying narrow on the left, they can be stretched via balls in behind the full-backs – which is where Haji Wright and Tatsuhiro Sakamoto could be difference-makers for Coventry City here. In addition, Gavin Bazunu isn’t the most confident presence in goal, so there is vulnerability to exploit if the Sky Blues can keep themselves in the game.