Sideways Sammy

Losing away at Plymouth Argyle on Easter Monday threatened to be a blow to spend Coventry City’s play-off bid into a tailspin, instead, results elsewhere have conspired to leave the Sky Blues in a position where they can make the top six without winning another game this season – potentially, via picking up just one more point. It sets up a strange encounter against relegation-threatened Luton Town, where any result other than a heavy defeat will keep Coventry in control of their destiny on the final day of the season.

That is probably good news for a Coventry City side that has started to struggle away from home and are up against a Luton Town that will have to throw the kitchen sink at them in order to move out of the bottom three at the most crucial phase of the season. As much as a win could make things on the final day much easier, the truth is that this game has significantly less impact on the Sky Blues’ fate than the one they face next week.

Expected Line-Up

As much as a defeat is not necessarily a disaster, Coventry City must be aware that even a point here comes with the prize of either securing a top six place or preventing Middlesbrough being able to play for a draw on the final day to leapfrog the Sky Blues. The question for Frank Lampard is whether he changes the approach and personnel to attempt to gain the minimum result required, or sticks with what has largely been working since his appointment of looking to control possession and control games.

All eyes are going to be on the selection in goal, which is going to be indicative of the approach for this game – as well as the remainder of the season, however long it is. Frank Lampard has largely been pretty inflexible in terms of tactics and personnel during his time at Coventry City, which is likely to favour Brad Collins despite a poor showing against Plymouth Argyle last time out. Collins’ distribution has been a key factor in his recent selection, that could change if Lampard decides to go back to basics in order to play for the draw here.

Bringing Ben Wilson in goal would likely necessitate further changes throughout the rest of the team in order to mitigate his shortcomings in terms of his passing and ability to sweep up behind the defence. That could see Coventry City move to a three-man back-line and play more directly into the strikers. Having Bobby Thomas back fit for this game would be a huge boost if that’s the decided approach, however, he won’t be fit enough to feature until next week.

Moving to a 3-5-2 shape may also resolve the recent issues in attack of whomever plays at centre-forward struggling to get chances and Tatsuhiro Sakamoto’s current stage-fright on the right wing. It would also hark back to the last meeting between the two sides when Ellis Simms and Haij Wright thrived in a direct approach against Luton Town’s defence – although, the Hatters’ back-line is very different to back in October.

For all this talk of big changes, don’t be too surprised if the starting XI for this game turns out to be very similar to the Plymouth Argyle game – save for Jay Dasilva and Ben Sheaf coming in – due to the lack of compelling alternatives in the squad.

Last Time We Met

That meeting with Luton Town at the CBS earlier in the season was a strange instance of a home side finding themselves 2-0 down and clapped off at half-time by the home supporters. The truth was, it had been a spirited and gutsy performance from the Sky Blues but one where, as had too often been the case earlier in the season, they had fallen behind to an opponent scoring from the little that they created.

Shortly before the hour mark, Ellis Simms finally made the pressure count when he nodded in a Jack Rudoni corner-kick at the near post. Victor Torp levelled the scores with 11 minutes left when he curled in a sumptuous effort from just outside the penalty area. With Luton Town holding on for dear life, Tom Holmes was sent off for one of the most blatant second yellow cards you’ll ever see. From the resulting set-piece, Haji Wright bundled in a winner that provided a temporary stay of execution for Mark Robins, who was sacked less than two weeks later.

The Opposition

The Manager – Matt Bloomfield

Briefly linked with the Coventry City job in the wake of Mark Robins’ departure back in November, Matt Bloomfield took the reins at Luton Town back in January, trading what looked a great chance to get a promotion on his CV at Wycombe Wanderers to take over a Hatters outfit in a parlous state, sleepwalking into a second successive relegation. It has taken time for Bloomfield to make an impact at Kenilworth Road, but he may have coaxed some life into the team at just the right time to save them from disaster.

Performances at home have been particularly impressive under Matt Bloomfield, with Luton Town summoning the spirit that had abandoned them during the back end of their time in the Premier League and for much of this campaign to make themselves the physical, abrasive and intense nightmare to deal with that they previously were. The style has largely been to be aggressive and direct, playing fairly narrowly to swamp opponents in the middle of the pitch and look to pin them back with first and second balls. Finishing has been an issue, but they have shown recently that once they get their noses in front, they don’t just dig in but can continue to press for more goals.

Who To Look Out For?

Part of Luton Town’s struggles this season have been via an infuriating combination of injuries and key players seeing their form desert them completely. On top of that, they were very active in the January transfer window – in almost a throw sticky things at the wall and see what stays there approach – which has engendered a sense for much of the campaign of having little idea of the strongest starting XI, style or approach.

Recently, Luton have settled on a formula that is centred on physicality in both defence and attack. Getting Teden Mengi back fit in central defence is a huge boost – a player who had been touted for a move back to the top-flight last summer – along with the emergence of Christ Makosso, who seemed to have been signed as ‘one for the future’ back in January. With the experienced Mark McGuinness at the heart of the back three and a strong shot-stopper, in Thomas Kaminski, in goal, Luton look resolute at the back for the first time in a long time.

Up front, Carlton Morris grabbing his first goal of the calendar year last time out is a huge boost for a team that has struggled for a reliable finisher this season. Morris has stayed in the side due to his ability to lead the line with his combination of physicality and ability to drop between the lines to link play. He is flanked by the pacey Milenic Alli one one side and the mercurial Thelo Asgaard on the other, the latter of whom is a precocious talent who can score out of nowhere and seems to thrive on the physicality around him to pick up second balls in dangerous areas to shoot from.

In midfield, another January addition, Lamine Fanne, has proved important in Luton’s recent form to add further energy and physicality to this Hatters outfit. Liam Walsh, who had looked a disastrous signing earlier in the campaign with his propensity to get sent off, has settled into a key role recently alongside Fanne as someone with quality on the ball from both open play and set-pieces. Additionally, the pace of Isaiah Jones at right wing-back is a key outlet through which Luton can mix things up through.

Where The Game Will Be Won Or Lost

The worry from a Coventry City perspective is that they have shown in recent away games against relegation-threatened sides that they are incapable of matching the intensity of opponents scrapping for points. The approach has too often centred around stale possession that has invited teams to sit in and hurt the Sky Blues on the counter-attack. With almost everything for Luton Town resting on winning this game, the intensity Coventry will be up against will be even higher than usual.

Luton Town will surely look to target Coventry City’s defence with the physicality of Carlton Morris, who is likely to be relishing a battle against Joel Latibeaudiere and Liam Kitching. Kitching has to avoid getting dragged out of position by his desire to compete in every challenge, while Latibeaudiere is going to have to show some propensity from somewhere to be able to deal with a physical opponent. The solution to that could be to play a high-line to try and prevent Morris being able to impact the game close to Coventry’s goal, however, Luton have pace through Millenic Alli and Isaiah Jones to get in behind.

The aim for Coventry City here will surely be to try and find a way to use Luton Town’s desperation for the win against them. That might involve sitting back and waiting for opportunities to hit them on the counter, but that relies upon the defence being able to soak up pressure – probably along with Luton missing chances too. The performance of the forwards for the Sky Blues is going to be important, both in being able to get the team up the pitch and in taking chances. This would be a great time for Ellis Simms to remind Coventry fans he has something about him, or for Haji Wright to threaten with his pace, physical awkwardness and finishing ability.

It’s important to remember that, as great as a win would be here, a point is incredibly valuable for the Sky Blues’ end of season hopes. Even avoiding a heavy defeat keeps the arithmetic in Coventry’s favour.