Sideways Sammy

Last week’s defeat at Sheffield United showed just how wide the gulf continues to be between Coventry City and the best teams at this level. The question heading into a clash with another automatic promotion contender is whether a week is enough time, on top of having home advantage, to narrow that gap in a game where the Sky Blues really have to take something from in order to stay in the top six.

Coventry take on a Burnley side that barely lose or even concede goals. This is really going to be put to the test this team’s ability to concentrate but also its belief when faced with a difficult opponent. Burnley’s imperious defensive record means any lapse could end the game as a contest, but it is starting to become a self-fulfilling prophesy where teams don’t believe they can score against them even before the game has started.

Expected Line-Up

The news that Oliver Dovin is out of the rest of the season – and likely a large chunk of the next one – is a serious blow for Coventry City. One of the key reasons why this team has been better over the second half of the campaign has been the difference having a goalkeeper who can be relied upon to make saves can make. All evidence since Frank Lampard has taken over suggests Brad Collins will be the man to step in between the sticks, someone who has looked incapable of positively affecting games for well over a year.

There will surely be considerations made as to how to make the team more defensively secure than they have been against better teams since Frank Lampard has taken over. It has been far too easy for opponents to get in behind the defence, which could be exacerbated if Collins continues the ghost level shot-stopping of his last spell in the side. Last time out, the problems started in midfield, where Jamie Allen and Matt Grimes were virtual spectators without the ball, but there aren’t really obvious options to address that other than hoping the duo step up this time out – as they did against Sunderland recently.

Moving to a back three may be part of the thinking for this game, and maybe going forward, but those heavy defeats against Leeds United and Ipswich Town back in February showed that such a system is no defensive panacea. That is mainly because pushing Milan van Ewijk further forward limits his ability to cover one side of the defence with his pace. Instead, Liam Kitching and Jay Dasilva are likely to come in to the back-line, with the hope being that the team can assert itself on the game and limit opportunities for the opposition to get in behind.

Further forward, Jack Rudoni will probably take Victor Torp’s place in the side now that he is back to fitness. Ephron Mason-Clark’s struggles last time out could see Haji Wright moved out to the left of the attack, which could free the American from a potentially difficult physical battle with Burnley’s centre-backs. However, it feels like Frank Lampard wants to make Mason-Clark on the left and Wright through the middle work, for the time being.

Last Time We Met

Coventry City committed the cardinal sin of conceding a goal to Scott Parker’s Burnley side, thus ending any hope of taking something from their trip to Turf Moor back in November. In truth, it was far from a terrible performance from the Sky Blues in the final of Rhys Carr’s interim games in charge of the club. However, they lacked the attacking impetus in the first-half to trouble a Burnley side that moved up a gear in the second.

Coventry were caught on the hop early in the second-half, when Jeremy Sarmiento started and finished a move that saw him find space in the penalty area to produce a tame effort that Brad Collins probably should have saved. In truth, that was the killer blow, however, Ephron Mason-Clark produced a wonderful overhead finish for what would have been his first goal for the club, had he not been offside. Shortly after, former Coventry City loan target, CJ Egan-Riley hooked a completely accidental effort past Collins to put some gloss on the final score.

The Opposition

The Manager – Scott Parker

Has carved himself out a reputation for being the man clubs turn to when they want to get back into the Premier League in the most joyless way possible, after getting Fulham and Bournemouth into the top-flight in recent years, he may well repeat that feat with Burnley this time out. The Clarets this season have almost been a parody of the type of methodical, safe football Parker has been associated with during his managerial career, Just two defeats and 11 goals conceded this season is truly an impressive record, but the 15 draws and lack of goals from his strikers encapsulate a Burnley side that often look like they deliberately refrain from taking risks.

The first half of the campaign had been about forging a team out of a squad that had a lot of turnover and injuries heading into the season, as things have settled down since January, Burnley have improved and are looking an increasingly complete team. The Clarets haven’t lost since the start of November and have conceded just two goals since the start of the year, while scoring at slightly better rate. While they are still a team that keep clean sheets as a seeming priority, there has been an improvement in their attacking threat, making them all the more intimidating as a prospect.

Who To Look Out For?

Burnley’s success this season has been built upon a truly imposing defence. The French centre-back, Maxime Esteve, has been especially impressive in his ability to completely dominate in all facets of his defensive play. Whether it’s in physical battles, pace or against skill, Esteve is someone who almost no-one in the division has been able to get the better of. Partnered by the pacey CJ Egan-Riley, Esteve is a truly imposing figure who is quite clearly a cut or two above Championship football.

For those rare moments when teams can get past Esteve, it helps that Burnley have a goalkeeper, in James Trafford, who is also far too good for this level of football. The third-choice England goalkeeper for a reason, Trafford has, by far, the best save rate in the division of anyone who has played over ten games this season. Furthermore, as a Manchester City academy graduate, he is supremely comfortable on the ball, adding an extra layer of security at the back for the Clarets.

Esteve and Trafford’s excellence is a key reason why Burnley are almost impossible to score against, which is increasingly providing a platform for the team to attack with more freedom. That has been aided by the January addition of Marcus Edwards, someone who, not so long ago, was making an impact at the top level of European football with Sporting, who might not yet have produced a significant number of goals or assists but his pace and dribbling ability has created space elsewhere in attack for others to flourish.

Those others are predominantly the trio of Jaidon Anthony out wide, Zian Flemming playing as somewhere between a midfielder and striker, as well as Josh Brownhill making late runs into the box. Anthony is someone who loves to cut inside and shoot, which had been harder before Edwards was drawing defenders away from him, while Flemming is someone who offers both physical presence and the ability to get shots away in tight areas. Brownhill, meanwhile, has regularly produced key goals this season by getting those late runs into the box timed just right.

With that improved attacking freedom, the ability of Josh Cullen to keep possession ticking over in midfield can be all the more frustrating to opponents. Burnley are less and less a team that just looks to keep it tight, they are increasingly devastating in the final third.

Where The Game Will Be Won Or Lost

It appears as if Coventry City absolutely cannot afford to fall behind in this game, purely because of Burnley’s ludicrously impressive defensive record. The concern is that if the Sky Blues approach this game with the lack of nous they’ve shown in pretty much every game against a stronger opponent while under Frank Lampard, the game will be over as a contest early and the final result will be defined by how many Burnley fancy scoring.

The specific concern is the pace and dribbling ability of Marcus Edwards on the right of Burnley’s attack against Coventry City’s high line and weakness on the left of their defence. It risks being a complete mismatch on that side of the pitch, with Edwards devastating enough when teams sit deep and even more so with the space he could be presented to run into if the Sky Blues cannot prevent those balls in behind. If the Sky Blues try and play on the front foot – which has almost always been the case under Frank Lampard – It really is going to fall to the midfield to impose themselves on the game and prevent Burnley getting the time on the ball to exploit Coventry’s high defensive line.

Scoring against Burnley looks a truly intimidating prospect as they are not just a team that defends well, but can really impose themselves on opponents and make barely any errors that can give teams hope that they can score. If Haji Wright is played at centre-forward, he is going to have to attempt to be more imposing and capable of linking the play than he was against Sheffield United – he is unlikely to have the space he exploited against Sunderland in the last home game.

If there is an area to believe Coventry might get something, it is from set-pieces. While Burnley have conceded the fewest goals from dead balls of any Championship team this season, as a proportion of the total goals they’ve let in, they have the worst record in the division. As has been seen throughout this campaign, the Sky Blues definitely can threaten from dead balls.