Sideways Sammy

Back-to-back wins has lifted Coventry City out of the mire and looking up the table, with the chance to move within touching distance of the play-offs by the time the next international break comes around. A change in formation has brought sense to a squad that had previous looked like a loose affiliation of its constituent parts, along with slices of fortune starting to go this team’s way, confidence has been bolstered.

This home game against Derby County is the only one out of the next four against a bottom-half side, making it feel an important one to win to buy some freedom to attack those tougher tests ahead. The Rams have picked up just two points on the road all season, with their manager having only won seven out 74 away games at this level, six of which came during Covid. This is a match that Coventry City should win, dealing with that pressure will be another test of this team’s nascent recovery.

Expected Line-Up

It would be a bold man to change a side that has just won by three goals away from home, but Mark Robins will surely have been spooked from poor performances earlier in the season that came amid these three-game weeks. It may not be radical changes from the side that beat Middlesbrough, but expect at least a couple to keep things fresh.

Losing Ellis Simms to injury after the team had travelled up to Middlesbrough was a blow Mark Robins was able to ride out in the end. His potential availability would make for the most obvious change ahead of this game, reclaiming his spot from the enthusiastic Brandon Thomas-Asante. If not, Norman Bassette may get a chance to impress in attack as a way to keep things fresh.

After making an impact off the bench at the weekend, Tatsuhiro Sakamoto is a strong candidate to make the starting line-up for this game. There’s a nice dovetailing developing between Sakamoto and Victor Torp in the third midfield spot, with Sakamoto offering driving intent from the number ten role, while Torp provides greater assurance on the ball. With Torp seemingly not quite trusted to last even 90 minutes, a rotation there looks likely.

The other decision to make is probably at left wing-back, where there are options to hand Jack Rudoni a rest. With Jay Dasilva, or the more attacking, Ephron Mason-Clark, capable of coming in, Mark Robins has the ability to change things up there. However, Rudoni may be the best choice considering his ability in possession in what is likely to be a game where Coventry City will have most of the ball, with the upcoming match against Sunderland the more opportune moment to rest the summer signing.

Last Time We Met

With Coventry City harbouring hopes of making the play-offs and Derby County mired in a points-deduction and transfer embargo-fuelled doomed survival bid back in March of 2022, it was somewhat surprising that it was the Rams who were on top for large spells at Pride Park. The Sky Blues, playing a back three for much of the game made up of Ben Sheaf, Dominic Hyam and Jake Bidwell, struggled to get going, until they produced a glorious move to set up Matt Godden for the opening goal on the stroke of half-time.

That frail Coventry back-line did well to keep Derby County out for much of the second-half, only for the Rams to win a soft penalty when Tom Lawrence threw himself to the ground at the merest hint of a challenge from Ben Sheaf. Both sides went on to have decent chances to win it, Coventry City’s involving Matt Godden sending Viktor Gyokeres through one-on-one for a finish that the latter fluffed, as the game rather fizzled out into a draw.

The Opposition

The Manager – Paul Warne

A man who has four times won promotion from League One – thrice with Rotherham United and once with Derby County – staying in the Championship has proven the tough part for Paul Warne. Someone who places a great deal of emphasis on fitness and motivation, there is an underlying sense that he lacks the tactical nous at second-tier level, underlined by that dreadful away record mentioned earlier in the article.

The approach from Warne’s sides is largely based on playing directly and trying to support that with an energetic press. Lacking a target-man to act as that focal point to build attacks around, Derby County have struggled to create much in open play this season but have been a huge threat from set-pieces. That direct, energetic approach can often leave them stretched at the back, which is where those troubles on the road seem to have resulted.

Who To Look Out For?

With that back-line often so stretched by their approach, it has been mightily handy that Derby County’s best player is they goalkeeper, Jacob Zetterstrom. The giant Swede is the perfect goalkeeper for Derby’s style of play, a fantastic reaction shot-stopper, a commanding presence in his box from crosses and with a booming long kick, Zetterstrom has been a stand-out performer in both preventing goals and getting attacks started. If not for Zetterstrom, Derby would be much lower down the table.

The other key feature of this Derby County side is their crossing threat from wide positions, with Joe Ward on the right and Nathaniel Mendez-Laing on the left key sources of creativity for the Rams. Ward likes to get the ball into the box early with crosses from deep, from Mendez-Laing plays further up and will look to commit defenders and beat them before hitting the byline for crosses. Marcus Harness is another option out wide as someone who is more of a direct goal threat.

In midfield, Ebou Adams’ energy and physical presence has been key in protecting that often-exposed Derby back-line, often paired with Kenzo Goudmijn, who looks to supply some technical quality alongside him. In addition, Crystal Palace youngster, David Ozoh, can come into the side to add extra defensive presence in midfield, or Ben Osborn can be played there to add another crosser to the team both in open play and from dead balls.

At the back, Eiran Cashin is someone destined to play at a higher-level as a centre-back who is both physically powerful and great on the ball. The experienced Curtis Nelson acts as Cashin’s defensive partner, someone who is great at organising and putting his body on the line to block shots. Liverpool loanee, Nat Phillips could well come into the side for this game to add further physicality in defence for the Rams.

Where The Game Will Be Won Or Lost

Derby County have the potential to make this game a chaotic one if they can build pressure from long passes into their forwards that stretch Coventry City’s back-line, which can turn matches into end-to-end basketball affairs. While that may see the Sky Blues look to exert control by playing out from the back and around Derby’s energetic press, if the game ends up becoming stretched, that may suit Coventry more than it does Derby, with Haji Wright, in particular, likely to relish the space that opens up.

Given their struggles on the road and their declining league position, it wouldn’t be surprising to see Derby County set up to contain and look to keep a clean sheet as a minimum. Coventry City are likely to have long spells of possession as they probe for a way through, the question is whether this team has someone in it to play those difficult passes in tight spaces to open such a game up – probably only Victor Torp fits that description, while Luis Binks pushing forward from left centre-back will be another key way to attempt to open a tight game up.

Set-pieces could well define how this game goes, pitching the two teams with the highest amount of goals scored from dead balls in the division against each other. Unlike Coventry City, Derby County are also almost as good at defending them as they are scoring from them. A key factor there is that Derby have a keeper, in Jacob Zetterstrom, who commands his penalty area from crosses, whereas Oliver Dovin is much less of a presence. For the Sky Blues, avoiding conceding set-pieces feels a key concern in this game.