Sideways Sammy

One defeat from the opening five games is far from a terrible start, but with just one win on the board, Coventry City are yet to really get going this season. It’s way too early to draw definitive conclusions about this team and where their ambitions at the end of the campaign may lay, but a win to round off this first block of fixture before the international break would quell any anxiety about where the Sky Blues currently are.

Coventry City’s opponents for this game, Watford are in a similar position. Expected to push for a top six finish, the Hornets have just one win on the board but have been trying to overhaul their style of play with a new-look squad. Performances have been better than results thus far for the Hertfordshire side and they could ask questions of the Sky Blues that they have yet to have been at this nascent stage of the season.

Expected Line-Up

With this preview published at 10am on the day of the transfer deadline, you will have to forgive me for not factoring any potential late signings into my analysis here, However, it is unlikely that anyone brought in at this stage will be either ready or even eligible to come straight into the side.

There is limited scope for change with the starting XI for Coventry City at this moment in time. One of the main areas where the manager has options is in the attacking midfield position, with Kasey Palmer, Tatsuhiro Sakamoto and Yasin Ayari to choose from. However, Palmer seems very likely to keep his place both due to some decent early performances and the sense that neither Sakamoto nor Ayari are ready to start games.

That leaves the other key decision in attack, where the call looks to be between Haji Wright and Ellis Simms to partner Matt Godden. Simms somewhat surprisingly got the nod last week and put in a decent shift, getting on the end of a few of the team’s better chances. With Haji Wright having been more impressive in his first weeks at Coventry City from the bench than when starting, it makes sense to keep the club’s record signing in that impact role for the time being – hoping that a couple of weeks to work on his fitness will put him in a position to start games once action resumes after the international break.

Elsewhere, the only possible selection consideration may be in central midfield where Josh Eccles and Ben Sheaf struggled to provide the team with the creative passing that could have opened the game up against Sunderland last week. With their main competition, Yasin Ayari, not seeming to be fully fit, Eccles and Sheaf look safe for this game. Furthermore, Watford’s pressing and desire to play a possession game could well suit the energy and combativeness that the Sky Blues’ midfield duo provide.

Last Time We Met

At a time when Coventry City needed to pick up wins to get themselves in the play-off picture back in April of last season, it was frustrating how a talented Watford side who had little to play for took the game by the scruff of the neck at the CBS Arena. The Hornets took the lead through an excellent counter-attack involving Britt Assombalonga and Joao Pedro, with the latter finishing confidently even when the pass back to the former looked the better option. Watford were then two up when Imran Louza fired home at the second attempt after Ismaila Sarr bamboozled Josh Wilson-Esbrand out wide.

Watford continued to look the dominant side after the break, until that trusted old plan of punting the ball hopefully in the direction of Viktor Gyokeres released Matt Godden in a decent position to run at the opposing defence, with the striker producing a superlative finish to get Coventry City back in the game. The Sky Blues pushed for an equaliser without creating too much, until Manchester City duo, Josh Wilson-Esbrand and Callum Doyle, combined down the left, with the latter’s cross finding Matt Godden, who flicked into the path of Ben Sheaf for the finish.

There was even hope of winning the game in the final minutes, when Brooke Norton-Cuffy was hacked down in the penalty area, only for the referee to wave play-on. Nonetheless, the draw was an excellent result given how far Coventry City looked to be out of it with Watford at two goals up.

The Opposition

The Manager – Valerien Ismael

Since taking Barnsley into the play-offs three years ago with a brand of ultra-direct and ultra-intense pressing football, Valerien Ismael has struggled to replicate that with success anywhere else. A subsequent spell at West Bromwich Albion saw him hounded out of the club while still in the play-offs due to that non-anaesthetic brand of football, before another short-lived stint, this time at Besiktas, left him out of work prior to his appointment at Watford over the summer.

Ismael’s appointment at Vicarage Road has coincided with a clearing of the decks as the club has looked to cut costs after failing to get back into the Premier League at the first time of asking last year. Star players Joao Pedro and Ismaila Sarr are gone without much money invested in replacements. However, that fits the collective ethos that Ismael is looking to implement, adding a more concerted use of possession to his pressing style. While early results have been underwhelming, the Hornets have one of the best expected goals ratios in the division and also lead for passes per defensive action – a metric that measures pressing intensity. If Watford maintain faith in Ismael, something that they aren’t known for, the performances suggest results will come.

Who To Look Out For?

After a clear-out this summer, Watford have few star names left but the one player that stands out is Imran Louza in central midfield. The Moroccan playmaker struggled with injury last year but looks to be fit and firing after a full pre-season with the team effectively built around him, as part of Valerien Ismael’s push for a possession-based style of play. Louza is getting plenty of touches of the ball right now and has been the key creative spark with his ability to play dangerous passes to cut through opposition defences.

On top of Louza, the hope is that young attacking, creative players such as Matheus Martins, Yaser Asprilla and Ismael Kone will step up this year in the absence of Joao Pedro and Ismaila Sarr. The Brazilian winger, Martins, has looked the most impressive thus far with his close control and surprising amount of strength for someone so young and skilful. Asprilla looks an exciting player with his ability to produce audacious passes and shots out of nowhere but is in need of refining his efforts to become more consistent. Similarly, Kone’s energy and touch in central midfield can be impressive but consistency has been the issue since joining Watford in January.

To get the best out of those creative players, the defensive combination of Wesley Hoedt and Ryan Porteous in central defence, with Francisco Sierralta, a centre-back by trade, sitting in front of them has proven pretty imposing at this stage of the season. That has allowed youngster, Ryan Andrews to settle in as first-choice right-back and also even allowed the winger, Ken Sema, to operate at left-back to provide some thrust down that side of the pitch.

In attack, Watford have Vakoun Bayo to hold the ball up and challenge opposing centre-backs physically, while they are hoping that recent signing, Mileta Rajovic can provide goals, along with Rhys Healey, who has yet to feature as he builds fitness after a recent long-term injury.

Where The Game Will Be Won Or Lost

Forget Watford’s results thus far, this could well be Coventry City’s biggest test of the season. The reason why is that the Hornets are going to press very high up the pitch and will test this new-look Sky Blues side’s ability to play out from the back in the slow, deliberate manner they have been trying to during this first month of the campaign. That fear of the problems a high-pressing Watford side could cause a team trying to build slowly out of defence could even lead Mark Robins into going for a more direct approach for this game, although it feels a little too early in the season to completely change things up for the sake of an opponent.

If Coventry City are to continue playing out from the back, one of the key concerns will be Ben Wilson’s ability to pass the ball accurately while under pressure. While he has looked okay with possession thus far, he could be forced into awkward situations here that will test both his ability and decision-making as a passer, which could be where Watford will be able to generate quick transitions. Additionally, there is the concern that if the ball is lost in dangerous areas, that could leave Kyle McFadzean in the centre of the back three exposed directly to pace.

On the other side of the ball, the aim for Coventry City should be to slow Watford down in possession as much as possible, as they have yet to find that fluency required to turn extended spells with the ball into goals. That is where Ben Sheaf and Josh Eccles could prove important in this game, breaking up Watford’s rhythm and cutting off that route between the middle third and the penalty area for the opposition.

Furthermore, any possession won by Sheaf and Eccles could also be valuable in generating counter-attacking situations against Watford’s high defensive line. While Valerien Ismael’s teams tend to be good at the kind of tactical fouling that can prevent quick counters, if that first ball played after a turnover is right, there will be space in behind the Hornets’ defence to exploit. The question though is whether Coventry City quite have the quick attacking players to take advantage of that.